Saturday, October 29, 2016

A Chinese Competitor to Boeing and Airbus?



Today’s topic will discuss the Chinese aircraft manufacturer COMAC, and their C919 jet aircraft currently under development.

Will the C919 Ever Receive FAA Certification?

I could just answer this question with “Yes, as long as it complies with the FAA standards, and is deemed airworthy”; however, that would probably be deemed poor literature, and so, I will elaborate. The C919 has encountered multiple problems during development, and has been delayed, with the first commercial flight not likely till 2019 or 2020 (Powell, 2015). However, this does not necessarily mean it will never be completed. As Powell states:

It’s not unusual that a project of this magnitude experiences delays. Even the Airbus A380 had countless delays and defects to overcome before it was finally delivered. Same with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Both manufacturers are established and well regarded for their products while for China this is completely new territory (2015)

I think an important factor to monitor is whether or not the COMAC ARJ-21 regional jet receives certification. If COMAC is able to satisfy the FAA’s standards for the smaller ARJ-21 jet. Then I would think it is reasonable to say they may be able to do so for the larger C919. However, if they are not able to certify the ARJ-21, then I find it unlikely the C919 will be any different.

What Challenges Would this Provide for U.S. Carriers? What about Public Perception?

Initially, I don’t foresee this being a major issue for most U.S. carriers. Most of them will probably wait until the aircraft has a better safety record, rather than be the first to start flying what the media may label a “cheap, Chinese rip-off”. But, If the aircraft proves to be safe and reliable, then it could become an option for U.S. airlines since it is  “likely to be priced at £32 million (US$50 million), which [is] up to 30 percent cheaper than a Boeing 737 or an Airbus 320” (Lyme, 2015). As for public perception, unless it is brought to the general public’s attention by the media, I feel that most passengers will not even realize a change has occurred. Most passengers (myself included before becoming involved in aviation), do not know what type of plane they are flying in, so long as it has a pair of wings, and gets them from point A to point B safety. There will of course be some who will not fly on carriers using the C919, and, as I stated above, it will depend how much the media brings it to the public’s attention; but I feel it will not affect the average flyer’s decision.

Who is COMAC?

The “Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China”, or COMAC (I guess CACC was already taken) is 
a state-owned aircraft manufacturing company, who “are massively supported by the Chinese government” (Matha, n.d.); the company, as they so adequately put it, was “Summoned and inspired by the sacred mission of ‘letting China-made large aircraft fly in the blue sky’” (“Company Profile”, n.d.). As far as mission statements go, that’s probably one of the more interesting ones I’ve heard recently.

The company has orders from several Chinese airlines, among them is Chengdu Airlines, which received and completed “the ARJ-21’s first revenue passenger service” on June 28th (Toh, 2016). Chengdu Airlines are “scheduled to take delivery of two more ARJ-21s this year… and has a further 29 examples on order” (Toh, 2016).
As for the company’s future plans, they also intend to development a widebody design (the C929, and C939). The aircraft is still in the “proposed” stage; but here are some of the possible specifications I found:

Length                         53.5
Height                         13.5
Wingspan                    55.6
Cruising                      950km / h
Seating                        300-350-seat
take-off weight           220 tons
range                           9500km
Life                             30,000 flight hours
Engine                         Using two sets of domestic engine, thrust 310 kN (Pike, 2016)

If the C919 is Certificated, Would this Encourage Other Companies to Enter the Market?

If COMAC is able to successfully produce an aircraft to compete with Boeing and Airbus, then I think it could inspire other companies to enter the market. Since COMAC is state-owned, it holds an advantage over other startup companies; however, it would still prove that it is possible to compete in the field as a new company.

Has Boeing or Airbus Responded?

I was unable to find any direct response to COMAC by Boeing or Airbus. Boeing is building its first plant (or more of a “completion center”), in China to “install interiors and paint exteriors on 737 airliners” (Thompson, 2015), and Airbus has been “delivering A320s from a Chinese plant [since] 2009”, with plans “to build a second such facility in the country” (Thompson, 2015); however, other than that, I did not find any particular actions by Boeing or Airbus.




References:

Company Profile. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://english.comac.cc/aboutus/introduction/
Lyme, C. (2015, November 02). Superjet made-in-China: First look inside the C919 passenger
            plane as the country's home-made airliner makes its worldwide debut. Retrieved from
            http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3300113/Superjet-China-look-
            inside-C919-passenger-plane-country-s-home-airliner-makes-worldwide-debut.html
Matha, M. (n.d.). 5 Reasons why Chinese Aircraft Manufacturer will become a Global
            Contender. Retrieved from http://www.wcs-global.com/uncategorized/5-reasons-why-
            chinese-aircraft-manufacturer-will-become-a-global-contender/
Pike, J. (2016, January 07). COMAC C929 / COMAC C939 - Design. Retrieved from
            http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/c929-design.htm
Powell, S. (2015, November 09). China's COMAC C919 Aircraft Running Behind Schedule -
            First Commercial Flight Not Before 2019. Retrieved from
            http://loyaltylobby.com/2015/11/09/chinas-comac-c919-aircraft-running-behind-
            schedule-first-commercial-flight-not-before-2019/
Thompson, L. (2015, September 23). Boeing To Build Its First Offshore Plane Factory In China
            As Ex-Im Bank Withers. Retrieved from
            http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2015/09/23/boeing-to-build-its-first-
            offshore-plane-factory-in-china-as-ex-im-bank-withers/#16a9c7855252
Toh, M. (2016, June 28). ARJ21 starts operations with Chengdu Airlines. Retrieved from
            https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/picture-arj21-starts-operations-with-chengdu-
            airlin-426747/

8 comments:

  1. Good read Dan. When answering the public perception prompt, I wrote from a very similar perspective. I find it hard to believe that most travelers whether it be those flying on their annual family trip to Disney World to the more frequent business flyer would even recognize what type of plane they’re flying. Like you said, I believe most people want to be reassured that the aircraft they’re flying is safe and reliable. I can see how it would be tough to sell a new airplane with little to no track record and one who also doesn’t have an FAA type certificate.

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  2. I like your post! I agree with your opinion that if the ARJ-21 can get FAA certification, I don't see a reason why the C919 can't get FAA certification. Of course the ARJ-21 has had problems for a few years now trying to get FAA certification. I also agree with your opinion that the public generally only cares about getting to their destination safely. They are not all that concerned with the type of plane they are on if they know they are safe and they make to where they are going.

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  3. Pointing out that most of the flying public has no idea what type of aircraft they are flying on, much less where it was built is pretty spot on in my opinion. As long as the aircraft maintain a solid safety record, and they have a solid safety record, I would see US carriers having much of a problem with them. It really boils down to what the media does with the information that US domestic carriers have purchased and are operating Chinese-built aircraft. Also it would be interesting to see what the resulting public perception would be the first time that one of these aircraft has a fatal crash. All in all a solid post, regardless of the actual quality of the aircraft, the average individual's perception of the quality of Chinese manufacturing is low, so I think it's going to be a steep uphill battle for Comac and the C919

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  4. There are already other companies trying to enter the market and break the duopoly held by Boeing and Airbus. The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) of Russia has been developing and promoting the MC-21, which is designed to compete with the B727 MAX and the A320neo. Mitsubishi has also been designing their own aircraft and if successful, may prompt them to develop a larger jetliner in the future that can compete with Boeing and Airbus.

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  5. Daniel,

    You make a great point by saying that if the ARJ-21 can get FAA certification then you don't see why the C919 wouldn't be get certified also. However, I don't think that the ARJ-21 will be able to receive certification in the near future. With the poor perception of manufacturing in China, I believe that the FAA will be even stricter than normal with them. Although this might be unfair to COMAC, I personally believe that they will be scrutinized more than other companies because it would be their first time getting a FAA certificate.

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  6. I had no idea that Boeing and Airbus had plants in China that was an awesome find. I think it's very interesting that the Chinese government even allows it but the fact that Boeing and Airbus have interest and influence there is great for their companies. I just hope Boeing and Airbus don't move all of their plants their for cheaper labor rates that would be destructive to the American Economy.

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  7. Daniel I really enjoy reading your post, you always include great information. 1. I really like the fact how you included how airbus and boeing both had troubles with certain type of aircraft and it took awhile, so why cant the C919 get approved. 2. I also like how you stated that if the ARJ-21 can get FAA certified why can't the C919 also be certified.

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  8. I do agree that Comac becoming an actual competitor with Boeing and Airbus could encourage more companies to enter the Aircraft Manufacturing industry. However, I don't think that being a state owned company is always an advantage. Being State owned makes that company completely reliable on their country's economy. They are dependent on the amount of money the government can allocate to the company.

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